July 08, 2004
One Disappointed Democrat
The most impressive thing about Kerry's selection of Edwards is that the force of JE's charisma (hair?) actually bumped Bill Clinton out of the news cycle. That's no small order--- Bill has been pimping My Life every night this week: Larry King, Jim Lehrer, etc etc...
Over a year ago, Clinton famously said that the Democratic party had two stars (not counting himself): Hillary and Wes Clark. The surprise of the primaries was that Clark went from super giant to white dwarf in as much time as it takes to say "endorsed by Michael Moore." Clinton had the numbers right but the stars wrong.
The fears of Edwards overshadowing Kerry on the campaign trail are overstated. Voters look at the ticket as a unit and will see a foreign-policy answer to the question, "if not Bush, then who" as well as a domestic-policy answer. The fact that it takes two different men to achieve this is not so important. The fact that the vice president has no formal role in determining policy is not so important either, as present office holders have shown.
And by the way, Edwards is only running for Veep, not for the Big Seat. Three years ago, we elected* Governor Bush, who, while in Austin was the 4th most powerful elected official in Texas and had exactly 0 foreign policy experience or knowledge, a demonstrated lack of interest in learning and rumored lack of capacity to learn. No one can say that about Edwards, who has modest experience as a member of the Intl Committee, but a reputation as a quick study.
Here's the point of this post: this is a nightmare VP selection for Hillary. If Kerry wins, Edwards is primed for 2012 (at which point Hillary will be 65 years old and Edwards 59). She has worked too hard over the years to be considered a centrist (witness her unwavering support for the war in Iraq) to run on Edwards' left flank. All she can hope for is that Edwards will get beat by Jeb Bush or Rudy G in 2012, and she'll get to run in 2012 at the Thatcherian age of 69.
What's missing from this simple picture? How about the fact that all the economic stimulus levers are presently at full throttle. There's really nothing that can be done to move the economy any further or faster. Which means that there's a good chance that whatever party is elected in '04 will preside over the chickens coming home to roost.
-- posted by nathan at July 8, 2004 10:56 AM - TrackBack
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