OnePeople

Perspective

Andrew Sullivan makes the following claim in the 10/24 Sunday Times on London--- which is backed up, at the very least, by the GOP political strategy:

Born-again white Americans outnumber blacks and hispanics combined.

Veep Veep!

Conventional wisdom in an election such as this is that it is a referendum on the incumbent. That's what makes the following so interesting:

In last night's Veep Debate, Bush was mentioned only 9 times: 3 times by moderator Gwen Ifill, twice by Edwards and 4 times by VP Cheney.

John Kerry, on the other hand, was mentioned 64 times -- 34 times by Edwards, and 30 times by Ifill and Cheney.

The result, of course, of contrasting styles: from the get-go, Edwards was there to defend and sell his boss to the American people. Cheney made no such effort. Why would he? As many have noticed, Bush simply disappeared as a target. And you've got to believe that's exactly what BC04 wants.

BC04 is doing everything they can to divert attention from their own candidate, as if they are afraid the mere invocation of his name in debate would dim his mandorla. Everyone agrees we're at a pretty important moment in history, in which the world is at the doorstep of another "steady state" (the last one being the Cold War), and all the President's Campaign can do is talk about the challenger?

Alternative Names for MoveOn.org

by Lucas Kaiser, courtesy of McSweeney's

MoveOverPlease.org

HeyItsPrettyLateImGoingToBedNowCouldYouLeave.org

IdAppreciateChangeButIllSettleForDreadlocks.org

IAmOfTheBeliefThatArmoiresShouldntBeUsedAsGunCabinets.org

ProudAmerican.co.uk

TheresNoConnectionBetweenMyHornRimmedGlasses
AndMyPoliticalViewsButIfYouAreAskingYesIAmAgainstBush.org

ByDayHousePainters.org

RememberMyStartupNowImIntoPolitics.org

UniversityOfPeopleNotForBush.edu

UnofficialUniversityOfPeopleNotForBush.org

TaxesSuckManWaitWereForTaxesOKTaxesRock.org

Government terrorist warnings boost President Bush's approval ratings, a Cornell sociologist finds

Shocking.

ITHACA, N.Y. -- When the federal government issues a terrorist warning, presidential approval ratings jump, a Cornell University sociologist finds. Interestingly, terrorist warnings also boost support for the president on issues that are largely irrelevant to terrorism, such as his handling of the economy.

Robb Willer, assistant director of the Sociology and Small Groups Laboratory at Cornell and a doctoral candidate in sociology who expects his Ph.D. in May 2005, tracked the 26 times that a federal government agency reported an increased threat of terrorist activity in the United States between February 2001 and May 2004. He also tracked the 131 Gallup Polls that were conducted during the same period. He then conducted several time-series and regression analyses on the relationship between government-issued terror warnings and Gallup Poll data on approval ratings of President George W. Bush.

"Results showed that terror warnings increased presidential approval ratings consistently," says Willer. "They also increased support for Bush's handling of the economy. The findings, however, were inconclusive as to how long this halo effect lasts."

Link

Poland is sooo mad...

... at John Kerry for not mentioning their membership in the colation of the willing at last week's debate that they're pulling their troops from Iraq.

WoT?

Amy Sullivan reports this stunner while filling in for Kevin Drum:

"A Stan Greenberg poll that was released last week asked Americans what bothered them most about the situation in Iraq. The idea that it diverts resources from a larger war on terror ranked 12th out of 12 concerns; the thought that it has alienated our allies was third."

Link

Pounding the Gavel

Why is it always fat, middle aged white guys who are into these things?

"He is the conservative bastion of the US supreme court, a favourite of President Bush, and a hunting partner of the vice-president. He has argued vociferously against abortion rights, and in favour of anti-sodomy laws.
But it turns out that there is another side to Justice Antonin Scalia: he thinks Americans ought to be having more orgies..."

Link

Debate IMs

ghelleks [8:59:06 PM]: WASHINGTON (AP) House ethics committee criticizes House Majority Leader Tom DeLay for improperly trying to influence a member's vote on a Medicare bill.
nathanhgoldstein [9:01:04 PM]: HB is using ron reagan like a $2 ho. every question is about his dad. "can we ask you to put yrself in your dad's shoes.."
ghelleks [9:01:26 PM]: i don't know what this "prize fight" shit is all about.
ghelleks [9:01:33 PM]: it's not like it's fucking Thunderdome.
nathanhgoldstein [9:01:55 PM]: jim lehrer's eyes are spoooooky
nathanhgoldstein [9:03:32 PM]: good lean-ver by JK
nathanhgoldstein [9:03:40 PM]: lean over. jeez i can't do this
ghelleks [9:03:55 PM]: i can't wait to see Lehrer give someone the smackdown. he's got lasers in his eyes
nathanhgoldstein [9:04:16 PM]: brown chipmunk lasers
ghelleks [9:04:29 PM]: pluck
nathanhgoldstein [9:04:38 PM]: did kerry have a stroke?
nathanhgoldstein [9:04:44 PM]: his face is crooked
nathanhgoldstein [9:05:19 PM]: look at the damn camera, JK
ghelleks [9:05:55 PM]: careful, splitting iraq and terror.
nathanhgoldstein [9:06:04 PM]: wrapped up fast
nathanhgoldstein [9:06:12 PM]: little shoulders on the prez
ghelleks [9:06:27 PM]: Luntz: "9-11 changed everything"
nathanhgoldstein [9:06:32 PM]: oh my fucking god. he didn't go 10 seconds without talking about 9/11
nathanhgoldstein [9:06:44 PM]: claimed indirectly that Al Q is hiding in Iraq
ghelleks [9:07:16 PM]: except in iran
nathanhgoldstein [9:07:41 PM]: don';t get hung up on letters. N, Q, whatever
ghelleks [9:08:13 PM]: he knows how to lead all right.
nathanhgoldstein [9:08:14 PM]: good moment for bush
nathanhgoldstein [9:08:22 PM]: really is. this is his strengthj
nathanhgoldstein [9:08:34 PM]: will you increase your font. i'm old
ghelleks [9:08:35 PM]: he's plain-talking
ghelleks [9:08:43 PM]: old man
ghelleks [9:08:57 PM]: never waver
nathanhgoldstein [9:08:57 PM]: russia? my brain just exploded
nathanhgoldstein [9:09:29 PM]: bush got animated first
ghelleks [9:09:39 PM]: of course
ghelleks [9:09:50 PM]: he made the insurgency foreign
nathanhgoldstein [9:09:57 PM]: they actually did beat us in Afghanistan, at least so far
nathanhgoldstein [9:10:14 PM]: JK, you don't "believe in being strong and resolute and determined". Those are personal qualities
nathanhgoldstein [9:11:10 PM]: the pool is busting out of the rules,. they just showed a reaction shot by bush... not allowed by the 36 page rule book
ghelleks [9:11:11 PM]: eye off the ball, damnit.
ghelleks [9:11:20 PM]: yeah, they didn't make Fox sign the memo.
ghelleks [9:11:27 PM]: and they're running the pool camera
nathanhgoldstein [9:11:28 PM]: stay on the ball line. good one... great finish by jk
ghelleks [9:12:19 PM]: the flip-flop reference was too oblique
nathanhgoldstein [9:12:27 PM]: JK needs to smile in next 4 min
nathanhgoldstein [9:12:33 PM]: right on F-F
nathanhgoldstein [9:12:40 PM]: 90%
ghelleks [9:13:03 PM]: NO MORE SUBORDINATE CLAUSES
nathanhgoldstein [9:13:10 PM]: the 200B # is a bad one. it's 120B in Iraq, the rest is Af etc
nathanhgoldstein [9:13:17 PM]: Opium? this is a great debate
nathanhgoldstein [9:13:22 PM]: too many facts
ghelleks [9:13:44 PM]: "it's not my fault"
nathanhgoldstein [9:13:49 PM]: Kerry looks at same intyel as the president
nathanhgoldstein [9:14:09 PM]: full on split screen. Fox is fucking with Jim Baker
ghelleks [9:14:45 PM]: heh
ghelleks [9:15:00 PM]: pre-sept. *10*?
ghelleks [9:15:10 PM]: that's luntz again
nathanhgoldstein [9:15:12 PM]: we're laughing about that here
nathanhgoldstein [9:15:30 PM]: WE DO NOT HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF DOING BOTH
ghelleks [9:15:41 PM]: someone please fucking mention Iran and North Korea, or I'm going to vomit with rage
nathanhgoldstein [9:15:58 PM]: Al Q is a people, a race
ghelleks [9:16:05 PM]: boy howdy.
nathanhgoldstein [9:16:08 PM]: Saddam, Bin Laden, whatever
ghelleks [9:16:11 PM]: they've both goofed that.
nathanhgoldstein [9:16:23 PM]: yeah but bush REALLY has them excused
nathanhgoldstein [9:16:27 PM]: confused. ha ha ha
ghelleks [9:16:31 PM]: "boy, this thing is really fucking complicated."
ghelleks [9:16:40 PM]: "i'm trying real hard."
nathanhgoldstein [9:17:03 PM]: prime minister allawi, whose speech my speechwriters wrote
ghelleks [9:17:23 PM]: spending reconstruction money, my ass.
nathanhgoldstein [9:17:50 PM]: Oooo I think tommy franks supports the prez
nathanhgoldstein [9:18:08 PM]: OHIO
ghelleks [9:18:12 PM]: i'm not sure it matters for the point he was making
nathanhgoldstein [9:18:18 PM]: THE NEW FLORIDA
ghelleks [9:18:20 PM]: great story
ghelleks [9:18:54 PM]: JK's getting comfortable
nathanhgoldstein [9:19:24 PM]: GWB is on the offensive. "Can I respond" .. his best moment. not what he says, but that he wants to mix it up
ghelleks [9:19:32 PM]: word.
ghelleks [9:20:05 PM]: Bush is just COOLIN'
nathanhgoldstein [9:20:11 PM]: GWB knows over 200 human signs
nathanhgoldstein [9:20:43 PM]: "apple", "eat", "hungry", "baseball" are only a few
nathanhgoldstein [9:20:49 PM]: nickle?
nathanhgoldstein [9:21:28 PM]: first ackonwledgement of audience by JK. smart
nathanhgoldstein [9:22:10 PM]: dumb
ghelleks [9:22:11 PM]: fucki
ghelleks [9:22:20 PM]: first campaign promise?
ghelleks [9:22:37 PM]: aw, shucks.
nathanhgoldstein [9:22:58 PM]: tripled the amount of homeland security, whch you apposed, since BE+FORE THERE WAS A NEED FOR IT?
nathanhgoldstein [9:23:03 PM]: Opposed
ghelleks [9:23:37 PM]: "I'm firing the CIA's ASS."
nathanhgoldstein [9:23:41 PM]: i haven't heard bush's stump speech in its entirety, but I don't get the sense that he's reciting it
ghelleks [9:23:51 PM]: I agree.
ghelleks [9:24:03 PM]: this is turning into a nice tennis match.
nathanhgoldstein [9:24:20 PM]: good line
nathanhgoldstein [9:24:24 PM]: of course?
ghelleks [9:24:42 PM]: (when I'm in Washington)
ghelleks [9:24:45 PM]: whoops
nathanhgoldstein [9:24:52 PM]: shakin the fingee?
nathanhgoldstein [9:25:06 PM]: paul points out how defensive GWB is
nathanhgoldstein [9:25:09 PM]: good questions
ghelleks [9:25:15 PM]: yeah
ghelleks [9:25:19 PM]: good questions
ghelleks [9:26:00 PM]: bush is using ridicule and aloofness as a counterargument, actually.
ghelleks [9:26:08 PM]: he's not actually providing any counterpoint
ghelleks [9:26:17 PM]: nothing based on fact, anyway
ghelleks [9:26:43 PM]: still hasn't answered
nathanhgoldstein [9:26:43 PM]: 100,000 iraqi cops?
ghelleks [9:26:54 PM]: again with that
nathanhgoldstein [9:26:55 PM]: hasn't meant shit to iran, actually. o
nathanhgoldstein [9:27:42 PM]: Well *I* met someone who said...
nathanhgoldstein [9:27:50 PM]: OOOOOO Kerryu berought up his dad!!!!!
ghelleks [9:27:52 PM]: friend just SMS'd: When Bush talks about terrorists, it's like he's talking about aliens.
nathanhgoldstein [9:28:35 PM]: this bringing up GB's dad could backfire. Piocture bush, with fire: "what do you know about my father?"
ghelleks [9:29:27 PM]: I changed my mind: Bush is actually pure attack, cornered-animal style.
nathanhgoldstein [9:29:30 PM]: good
ghelleks [9:29:31 PM]: RIGHT ON.
nathanhgoldstein [9:29:46 PM]: stay off vietman
nathanhgoldstein [9:30:10 PM]: great question
ghelleks [9:30:44 PM]: great answer
ghelleks [9:30:54 PM]: JK's not rambling yet
ghelleks [9:31:22 PM]: awesome
ghelleks [9:32:37 PM]: that was a strong body blow by JK
ghelleks [9:32:41 PM]: here I go with the fight metaphor
nathanhgoldstein [9:33:03 PM]: good bit by bush
nathanhgoldstein [9:33:48 PM]: colin powell, at minute 33
ghelleks [9:34:16 PM]: are you fucking kidding me?
nathanhgoldstein [9:34:18 PM]: right, we forgot poland.
ghelleks [9:34:29 PM]: Bush is getting pissed off, that's good.
ghelleks [9:34:55 PM]: great fucking question
nathanhgoldstein [9:35:25 PM]: raqpid victory... uihhhhhh... saddaM loyalists.... \uhhhh
nathanhgoldstein [9:35:39 PM]: it's hard work... 3rd time
ghelleks [9:36:20 PM]: "we won't achieve victory if we send mixed signals." that's the third time.
ghelleks [9:37:02 PM]: ^^^ -- it's a weak argument, too
nathanhgoldstein [9:38:05 PM]: tony blair, about whom i had a dream last night, at minute 37
ghelleks [9:38:35 PM]: finally, north korea
ghelleks [9:40:24 PM]: again, fresh start
nathanhgoldstein [9:40:43 PM]: i dont hink the last resoirt argumetnt is meaningful. we actuially did pretty much what we should have done with iraq. we just did it 5 yrs too early with other pressing priorites
nathanhgoldstein [9:40:53 PM]: JFK, minute 40
ghelleks [9:41:23 PM]: i'm a smart guy, and I'm confused by the bush response
ghelleks [9:41:53 PM]: Kerry looks bemused -- awesome
nathanhgoldstein [9:42:01 PM]: he blew an opening.
ghelleks [9:42:14 PM]: Bush is kind rambling now, no?
nathanhgoldstein [9:42:22 PM]: yes
ghelleks [9:43:10 PM]: Kerry feels like he's winning.
ghelleks [9:43:16 PM]: rather, looks like he feels like he's winning
nathanhgoldstein [9:43:25 PM]: bush is leaning in like he does in his stump speech. comfortasble now
nathanhgoldstein [9:43:50 PM]: "every life matters" -ralph reed
nathanhgoldstein [9:44:10 PM]: NC? at least pick a vet in Ohio, matt dowd
ghelleks [9:45:26 PM]: Great story. Bush, though, hasn't made the case for why Iraq was more important than the other "aid-and-comfort" states.
ghelleks [9:45:43 PM]: huh. he said doodie.
nathanhgoldstein [9:45:48 PM]: sally and PJ
nathanhgoldstein [9:46:10 PM]: kerry is improvising now.
nathanhgoldstein [9:46:27 PM]: excellent. not confuse the "war " with the "warriors"
ghelleks [9:46:30 PM]: he could do this response in his sleep
nathanhgoldstein [9:46:37 PM]: i dont know why i used quotes'
nathanhgoldstein [9:46:49 PM]: or apostrophe's's's's's
nathanhgoldstein [9:47:03 PM]: WEBSITE!
nathanhgoldstein [9:47:27 PM]: hunt and kill
nathanhgoldstein [9:48:22 PM]: he's exposing the conversations he has with dan bartg and karl. "if I say to them the worng war at the worng t=iem... they'lll .. I forgot the rest
ghelleks [9:51:10 PM]: JK's conversational moments work really well
nathanhgoldstein [9:51:15 PM]: he's not going after hiim for the fuzzy numbers
ghelleks [9:52:24 PM]: Bush's overall message reminds me of "America, love it or leave it."
ghelleks [9:54:17 PM]: Bush still hasn't made the Iraq-AlQ case.
nathanhgoldstein [9:54:57 PM]: it's am azing we're even ttalking about saddam
nathanhgoldstein [9:56:07 PM]: Ho! who's on my wavelenght
ghelleks [9:56:39 PM]: best response yet
ghelleks [9:58:06 PM]: kerry's still rocking this question. he just 0wnz it.
nathanhgoldstein [9:58:34 PM]: stand up triple for kerry on that retort'
nathanhgoldstein [10:00:02 PM]: balls again
ghelleks [10:00:15 PM]: i love balls
nathanhgoldstein [10:00:28 PM]: I love keeping my eyes on them
nathanhgoldstein [10:00:50 PM]: bush is about at his physical limit, I think. he could fall apart fast here'
ghelleks [10:00:56 PM]: yeah
nathanhgoldstein [10:01:19 PM]: no one, including bush, knows where the hague is
ghelleks [10:01:27 PM]: "half the things in his head are vulgar, and the rest obscene"
nathanhgoldstein [10:01:51 PM]: reads like a morrissey lyric
ghelleks [10:02:04 PM]: that's my girl.
ghelleks [10:02:57 PM]: he can't say penninsula
ghelleks [10:03:24 PM]: dead air
ghelleks [10:03:53 PM]: honestly, I lost track of what he's talking about
nathanhgoldstein [10:04:03 PM]: Moolah?
nathanhgoldstein [10:04:06 PM]: Paul
nathanhgoldstein [10:04:22 PM]: Paul: "cash money, baby"
ghelleks [10:05:01 PM]: nb: iraq's missle are 1/2 as good as iran's. any numbers on NK missiles?
nathanhgoldstein [10:05:20 PM]: at least 1, that can hit guam
nathanhgoldstein [10:06:05 PM]: both? fuck
nathanhgoldstein [10:06:36 PM]: this is the time to say "my positions don't fiot into soundbites..."
nathanhgoldstein [10:06:46 PM]: good responses by bush. really.
ghelleks [10:07:21 PM]: yes
ghelleks [10:07:27 PM]: and a fucking monster question
nathanhgoldstein [10:07:45 PM]: the candidtaes should take over. darfur is good photo, but not centrak
nathanhgoldstein [10:07:49 PM]: central.
nathanhgoldstein [10:08:18 PM]: they want to fight on terror. lehere made an editorial mistake by pulling them off topic to talk about sudfan
ghelleks [10:09:37 PM]: no, it's an instance of a decades-old problem, which is still tied: failed states, ethnic cleansing, etc. with bush's new doctrine, would he stabilize Sudan to prevent terrorism?
ghelleks [10:11:55 PM]: fuck
nathanhgoldstein [10:12:13 PM]: kerry mae a mistake to not explain WHY we should care aboutdarfur
nathanhgoldstein [10:12:31 PM]: this hsould be the 16th time b brought this up.. iit's the 3rd.
nathanhgoldstein [10:12:50 PM]: I JUST KNOW HOW THIS WORLD WORKS
nathanhgoldstein [10:13:34 PM]: JK should call him by first name
ghelleks [10:13:55 PM]: hah, Kerry checked off "appreciate wife"
nathanhgoldstein [10:14:25 PM]: I just rewinding to get the daughter comment agiain, so I'm 20 sec behind
nathanhgoldstein [10:15:26 PM]: i am a caveman on im
ghelleks [10:15:34 PM]: (meg sez: finally saw wet hot american summer, and it CHANGED MY LIFE)
nathanhgoldstein [10:15:39 PM]: "the truth of the science"
nathanhgoldstein [10:16:01 PM]: bush is unstoppable on this point
nathanhgoldstein [10:18:33 PM]: i love the nuke down
nathanhgoldstein [10:18:40 PM]: nuke TALK nuke TALK
nathanhgoldstein [10:19:01 PM]: kennedy again? minute 78.
ghelleks [10:19:30 PM]: bush is foundering
nathanhgoldstein [10:19:58 PM]: i thought it was a good.. wait. he just said "transshipmewnt".!!!!
nathanhgoldstein [10:20:05 PM]: trans-shipment
nathanhgoldstein [10:20:22 PM]: robust.
ghelleks [10:20:32 PM]: i like the lehrer summaries
nathanhgoldstein [10:20:35 PM]: they teach you that in hahvid biz school
nathanhgoldstein [10:21:50 PM]: `china, our allies
nathanhgoldstein [10:22:21 PM]: great question!! puytion
ghelleks [10:23:14 PM]: http://atrios.blogspot.com/2004/09/mexed-missages.html
ghelleks [10:23:42 PM]: putin doesn't need reminding about democracy, he's up to his ass in it
nathanhgoldstein [10:24:07 PM]: he used huis first name: vladimir'
nathanhgoldstein [10:24:43 PM]: bob smith, NH, now a purple state
nathanhgoldstein [10:25:14 PM]: george will?
ghelleks [10:25:40 PM]: doesn't understand truth?
ghelleks [10:25:51 PM]: what?
nathanhgoldstein [10:25:52 PM]: that was HOT
ghelleks [10:26:35 PM]: smokin'
nathanhgoldstein [10:26:47 PM]: kerry is on top right now
ghelleks [10:26:51 PM]: totally
ghelleks [10:28:09 PM]: fresh start, new credibility
nathanhgoldstein [10:28:34 PM]: nailing this so far
nathanhgoldstein [10:29:45 PM]: no draftf, according to bush
ghelleks [10:29:53 PM]: bush is pronoucning nuclear correctly, btw.
nathanhgoldstein [10:30:04 PM]: thanks, karen
ghelleks [10:30:15 PM]: har
ghelleks [10:30:34 PM]: fast, strong, resolute: like a sack of hammers