OnePeople

Conventional wisdom in an election such as this is that it is a referendum on the incumbent. That’s what makes the following so interesting:

In last night’s Veep Debate, Bush was mentioned only 9 times: 3 times by moderator Gwen Ifill, twice by Edwards and 4 times by VP Cheney.

John Kerry, on the other hand, was mentioned 64 times – 34 times by Edwards, and 30 times by Ifill and Cheney.

The result, of course, of contrasting styles: from the get-go, Edwards was there to defend and sell his boss to the American people. Cheney made no such effort. Why would he? As many have noticed, Bush simply disappeared as a target. And you’ve got to believe that’s exactly what BC04 wants.

BC04 is doing everything they can to divert attention from their own candidate, as if they are afraid the mere invocation of his name in debate would dim his mandorla. Everyone agrees we’re at a pretty important moment in history, in which the world is at the doorstep of another “steady state” (the last one being the Cold War), and all the President’s Campaign can do is talk about the challenger?

Shocking.

ITHACA, N.Y. — When the federal government issues a terrorist warning, presidential approval ratings jump, a Cornell University sociologist finds. Interestingly, terrorist warnings also boost support for the president on issues that are largely irrelevant to terrorism, such as his handling of the economy.

Robb Willer, assistant director of the Sociology and Small Groups Laboratory at Cornell and a doctoral candidate in sociology who expects his Ph.D. in May 2005, tracked the 26 times that a federal government agency reported an increased threat of terrorist activity in the United States between February 2001 and May 2004. He also tracked the 131 Gallup Polls that were conducted during the same period. He then conducted several time-series and regression analyses on the relationship between government-issued terror warnings and Gallup Poll data on approval ratings of President George W. Bush.

“Results showed that terror warnings increased presidential approval ratings consistently,” says Willer. “They also increased support for Bush’s handling of the economy. The findings, however, were inconclusive as to how long this halo effect lasts.”

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